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Early Voting Stats Show Undeniable Advantage for One Political Party

Will the trend snap back in the other direction on election day?

The 2020 US Presidential election will be a contest like no other in modern history, not only for its wild and brazen linguistic landscape, but also on account of how Americans will be voting.

The election comes during a global pandemic, and at a time in which the second wave of COVID-19 seems to be ready to pop-off.  Europe’s latest surge is record-breaking, and the 20-odd days between now and the US election feels oddly like the right amount of time for America to trend in the wrong direction at precisely the wrong time.

To protest our at-risk Americans from the inherent trouble of standing in long lines and busy polling stations, there are plenty of Americans voting either early or by mail, and the numbers that we’ve seen thus far from early voters are painting a very specific picture.

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A surge in absentee ballots cast in states across the country is handing Democrats an early advantage heading into Election Day amid signs that the party’s vote-by-mail focus is turning out regular and new voters alike.

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More than 6 million Americans have already voted in 27 states for November’s general election, according to data released by states that have begun accepting ballots.

Registered Democrats have returned 1.4 million ballots, more than twice the 653,000 ballots registered Republicans have returned so far, according to Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who analyzes early voting.

About two-thirds of voters who have already voted — 3.7 million Americans — are either unaffiliated with either party or live in states that do not register voters by party. Demographic modeling by one prominent Democratic firm, TargetSmart, estimates that almost 3 million of all votes cast have come from Democratic voters, compared to about 2.1 million from Republicans.

This was somewhat expected, and could further muddy the water on election day itself – especially as the disparate political parties work to secure their own slice of the narrative early and often.

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