As we wiggle ever nearer to the already-turbulent 2020 election, there are no shortage of pundits and other false prophets trying to predict just how this thing is going to go.
It’s a tricky one to try to call, undoubtedly. Donald Trump, who would normally have quite the advantage as the incumbent President, has been a bombastic firebrand in Washington, and will likely go down in history with one of the most controversial first terms of all time. The sheer ferocity of the “resistance” to him is enough to make some wonder if their figurative volume on Twitter will translate into a literal volume of voters in November.
For Joe Biden’s team, there is hope that the alleged “centrist” Democrat can scoop up support from former Trump voters who are unenthused with some of Trump’s more volatile episodes.
One of the nation’s most-cited pollsters seems to believe that it’s not close at all, however.
From FiveThirtyEight.com:
We’ve moved past Labor Day and into the home stretch of the 2020 election cycle. Joe Biden still leads in national polls by about 7 or 8 percentage points, and state polls also show a relatively stable race, with most — excluding those in Florida — containing good news for Biden. However, don’t count President Trump out yet. He still has a roughly one-in-four chance of pulling off an upset.
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On Wednesday, as part of his upcoming book on the Trump presidency, “Rage,” veteran journalist Bob Woodward revealed that Trump downplayed the severity of the coronavirus to the American public. The question, of course, is whether this revelation will move public opinion against Trump; he’s already gotten middling marks for his handling of the pandemic.
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At the very least, we know Trump didn’t become any more popular following the conventions. On average, polls asking Americans whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of both Trump and Biden showed that Biden gained a few points in popularity. His net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) improved from -2 percentage points before the conventions to +3 after. Trump, on the other hand, didn’t get even a small boost — his net favorability dropped from -13 points to -14.
Then, in a bombshell statement, the longtime political predictors claimed that Biden now has a 75% chance of winning the election.
Of course, it should be noted that Hillary Clinton was similarly believed to be a shoe-in back in 2016.
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