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Latest Polling from IBD/TIPP Shows Trouble on Horizon for Trump Campaign

But we mustn’t forget the lessons of 2015’s polling either.

As this historically turbulent 2020 election lurks just over the horizon, some 3 weeks away, everybody and their brother has been releasing the results of their polling, purporting to tell us just how the contest will go.

This is going to be an election like no other, as Americans looking to avoid the dangers of coronavirus turn to early voting and mail-in voting in likely record numbers.  Furthermore, President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned of the dangers of voter fraud, leading some of the fringe actors in this election to believe that any result in which Trump loses reelection will be an unfair one.  This is dangerous, of course, and the current level of political violence here in the United States has many citizens on edge.

The latest polling from IBD/TIPP seems to indicate that the President’s chances of reelection are slimming, which could very well bring high drama to the month of November.

Joe Biden holds a solid 8.5-point lead over President Donald Trump, barely three weeks ahead of Election Day, the inaugural IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll finds.

Biden leads Trump, 51.9%-43.4%, in a four-way 2020 election poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 2.4%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.8%.

In a head-to-head Biden vs. Trump poll, the Democratic nominee holds a commanding 10.4-point advantage, 52.7%-42.3%.

Of course, the polls leading up to the 2016 election all seems to indicate that Hillary Clinton was going to win in a landslide against Donald Trump, something that these latest polls seem to account for.

In 2016, almost all presidential election polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump’s 2016 victory. TIPP, IBD’s polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.

Yet the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has a few stark contrasts with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Most obviously, a majority of likely voters back Biden (51.9%). Yet Clinton’s support topped out around 45% in IBD/TIPP presidential election polls in the final weeks of the 2016 race.

Further, Biden’s 9-point lead among independents in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll is a big turnaround from 2016. Trump carried independents 43%-42% in 2016, according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters.

Of course, pre-election polling is little more than counting chickens before they hatch, and Americans should not be assuming any particular results are guaranteed before casting their votes.

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