The Democrats sure are fussing and fighting as of late, but is it all for naught?
Last night’s Democratic debate was a veritable mess, if we’re being polite, and has done little to shore up confidence that any of the personalities on stage could pose a real challenge to incumbent President Donald Trump next November.
These vaunted leftists spent nearly the entire night going after one another, even as some candidates attempted to steer the conversation back toward President Trump – likely because they had prepared for this debate as if it were going to be a referendum on the Commander in Chief and not a fight amongst themselves.
Now, according to one of the world’s premiere political forecasters, this entire charade could be nothing more than a contentious formality.
Each of the three election models used by Moody’s Analytics to forecast the 2020 election indicates that Donald Trump will likely win the presidential contest. Under two of the models, Trump is forecast to win with more than the 304 electoral college votes he garnered in 2016.
“Under the average of the three models, Trump would hold on to key industrial Midwest states and pick up New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota,” Moody’s said in a report detailing the results of its models.
Moody’s election forecasts have been very reliable in the past, correctly predicting every election result except 2016. The model undercounted support for Trump because it did not anticipate the increase in voter turnout that shifted the majority vote in crucial states.
It gets even wilder…
Importantly, Moody’s models all predict Trump wins even if the economy dips to multiyear lows by the end of 2020 and the stock market crashes 9 percent. In other words, Trump is expected to win despite a falling stock market and a sagging economy.
With this assurance now on the table, we may be able to view the remainder of the Democratic primary for what it truly is: A hilariously entertaining spectacle.
Become an insider!
Sign up for our free email newsletter, and we'll make sure to keep you in the loop.