New Polling Shows More Trouble for Donald Trump in November
As with any late-stage polling, one has to wonder if an ulterior motive is at play.
With only four months left to go before the nation descends on the polls like rabid, political pit bulls, we are almost certain to be inundated with poll after poll, attempting to sway our confidence in our candidates.
These late-stage polls, whether reputable or not, serve a largely political purpose by washing out the voters who are just busy. The voter who was planning to fit voting in to their day will take a poll complimentary to their candidate to mean that their vote isn’t needed to bring about the result they desire.
“Oh, they don’t need me. The poll said that my candidate has this in the bag”.
The reverse is true also: If a candidate is in a woeful position where winning appears to be an impossibility, these same “if I have the time” voters may skip out on election day as well. Standing in line or skipping lunch to cast a losing ballot is a dealbreaker for some.
The latest polling from Monmouth University is just shocking enough to push some voters over the edge.
Half of the nation’s electorate says they have ruled out voting for Donald Trump in November, while 4 in 10 say the same about Joe Biden. Biden currently holds a 12 point lead in the presidential race according to the latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Biden holds a significant advantage among the 1 in 5 voters who do not have a favorable opinion of either candidate. Slightly more voters say they are confident about the challenger’s mental and physical stamina than say the same about the incumbent.
Biden currently has the support of 53% of registered voters and Trump has the support of 41%. This is similar to the Democrat’s 52% to 41% lead in early June. Biden’s edge stood at 50% to 41% in May, 48% to 44% in April, and 48% to 45% in March.
Slightly more voters say they are certain about their support for Biden (40%) than say the same about Trump (34%). Fully half (50%), though, say they are not at all likely to support the incumbent while 39% say the same about the challenger. In addition to Biden’s current firm support, another 3% say they are very likely to vote for him and 9% are somewhat likely, while 6% are not too likely. In addition to Trump’s current firm support, another 2% say they are very likely to vote for him and 6% are somewhat likely, while 6% are not too likely. Among white voters with a college degree, 62% have ruled out a vote for Trump while just 31% say the same about Biden. On the other hand, 56% of white voters without a college degree are not at all likely to support Biden while 37% say the same about Trump. Among voters from other racial or ethnic groups, 61% have ruled out Trump and just 22% say the same for Biden.
And, as if to illustrate the point that Americans may simply be fed up with politics as a whole, 21% of those polled had no positive opinion of either candidate.
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